IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.3	#190
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#301
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.9	#197

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#176

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.0%	3.3%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.6	13.4	14.8

.500 or above	32.7%	37.6%	14.6%
.500 or above in Conference	28.8%	31.7%	18.2%
Conference Champion	2.4%	2.8%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	22.8%	20.3%	32.1%

First Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
First Round	2.8%	3.1%	1.5%
Second Round	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.8	0.0 - 0.8
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.7	0.2 - 2.5
Quad 2	1.0 - 4.6	1.2 - 7.1
Quad 3	3.9 - 7.2	5.1 - 14.3
Quad 4	7.5 - 3.1	12.6 - 17.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	283	Oral Roberts	W	70-65	79%
Nov 09, 2018	233	Robert Morris	W	69-66	71%
Nov 11, 2018	337	Stetson	W	76-65	91%
Nov 19, 2018	35	Nebraska	L	63-75	13%
Nov 20, 2018	58	USC	L	65-75	18%
Nov 24, 2018	151	@ Murray St.	L	67-69	31%
Nov 28, 2018	212	@ Air Force	W	68-66	46%
Dec 01, 2018	82	@ Oregon St.	L	63-70	18%
Dec 05, 2018	60	Western Kentucky	L	67-77	27%
Dec 15, 2018	199	@ North Dakota St.	W	68-67	43%
Dec 18, 2018	286	@ Arkansas St.	W	74-68	58%
Dec 22, 2018	332	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	72-62	88%
Jan 02, 2019	104	@ Southern Illinois	L	65-70	24%
Jan 05, 2019	120	Valparaiso	L	67-71	45%
Jan 08, 2019	161	@ Indiana St.	L	68-70	35%
Jan 12, 2019	117	@ Bradley	L	63-68	26%
Jan 16, 2019	196	Evansville	W	63-62	62%
Jan 20, 2019	202	@ Drake	W	70-69	44%
Jan 23, 2019	67	Loyola Chicago	L	61-70	30%
Jan 26, 2019	117	Bradley	L	63-68	45%
Jan 29, 2019	120	@ Valparaiso	L	67-71	27%
Feb 02, 2019	116	@ Northern Iowa	L	60-65	25%
Feb 06, 2019	104	Southern Illinois	L	65-70	42%
Feb 10, 2019	75	Illinois St.	L	67-75	34%
Feb 13, 2019	196	@ Evansville	W	63-62	42%
Feb 17, 2019	67	@ Loyola Chicago	L	61-70	16%
Feb 20, 2019	116	Northern Iowa	L	60-65	43%
Feb 23, 2019	161	Indiana St.	L	68-70	55%
Feb 27, 2019	75	@ Illinois St.	L	67-75	19%
Mar 02, 2019	202	Drake	W	70-69	63%
Projected Record						12.6 - 17.4	6.8 - 11.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	0.8	1.3	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.0	1.5	0.4	0.0						5.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.8	3.4	1.8	0.3	0.0							7.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.3	4.4	2.2	0.2									9.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	2.9	5.3	2.3	0.3	0.0									11.5	6th
7th					0.0	1.0	3.6	5.7	2.5	0.3	0.0										13.1	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.3	4.7	5.8	2.6	0.3	0.0											15.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.8	3.0	5.2	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.0												16.0	9th
10th	0.7	2.5	4.2	4.0	3.0	0.9	0.2														15.5	10th

Total	0.7	2.5	5.0	7.3	9.6	11.3	12.2	11.9	10.8	9.0	7.4	4.9	3.2	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	99.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	91.0%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
14-4	55.6%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.1
13-5	32.5%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	4.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1			0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.4%	2.4		1.3	0.7	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0								0.0
17-1	0.1%		92.6%	46.3%	46.3%	7.9			0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		86.2%
16-2	0.1%		55.6%	29.1%	26.5%	10.7						0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		37.3%
15-3	0.6%		37.6%	23.0%	14.6%	10.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.4		18.9%
14-4	1.3%		26.9%	22.9%	4.0%	12.1										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9		5.2%
13-5	2.2%		15.3%	12.8%	2.5%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.9		2.9%
12-6	3.2%		8.6%	8.6%	0.1%	12.9											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.9		0.1%
11-7	4.9%		7.4%	7.4%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	4.6		0.0%
10-8	7.4%		5.1%	5.1%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.0
9-9	9.0%		3.1%	3.1%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.8
8-10	10.8%		2.2%	2.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.5
7-11	11.9%		1.6%	1.6%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	11.7
6-12	12.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.1	12.1
5-13	11.3%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.2
4-14	9.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
3-15	7.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
2-16	5.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
1-17	2.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		3.0%	2.7%	0.3%	13.6		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.6	0.6	97.0		0.3%